Breast Cancer Risk Assessment in Jordanian Women Using Gail Model: A Cross-Sectional Study BC risk assessment using Gail model

Hamzeh AL-Balas (1), Mahmoud AL-Balas (2), Hadeel Heilat (3), Rogayah Mustafa (4), Eyad Attoun (5), Khaled Albakri (6)
(1) Department of General and Special Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Hashemite University, Zarqa, Jordan, Jordan,
(2) Department of General and Special Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Hashemite University, Zarqa, Jordan, Jordan,
(3) Faculty of Medicine, Yarmouk University, Irbid, Jordan, Jordan,
(4) Faculty of Medicine, Hashemite University, Zarqa, Jordan, Jordan,
(5) Faculty of Medicine, Hashemite University, Zarqa, Jordan, Jordan,
(6) Faculty of Medicine, Hashemite University, Zarqa, Jordan, Jordan

Abstract

Background: the study aimed to apply and validate the modified Gail Model (GM) in a group of Jordanian women to identify their estimated 5-years and lifelong breast cancer risk.


Methods: This cross-sectional study was carried out in Jordan, wherein data were gathered from women who had no previous personal history of breast cancer during the period from January 2020 to June 2020. Sociodemographic characteristics and other breast cancer-related factors were gathered from the participants. Breast cancer risks were determined using the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) of the National Cancer Institute Online version (Gail Model version 2). Data were analyzed using the SPSS


Results: A total of 502 women were involved in our study. The mean age was 47±8.8 years (range: 35-83). The majority of the women were married (93.6%). Twenty-seven women (5.2%) were nulliparous. Regarding menarche age, 243 women (47.3%) had their first cycle at the age of 12-13 years. One hundred women (19.9%) reported at least one family member with a breast cancer diagnosis while 23 women (4.6%) had a member with an ovarian cancer diagnosis. The calculated median for the 5-year BC risk was 0.8 (0.5 to 1.2), while the median for the lifetime risk was 9.2 (7.8 to 11.1). Thirty-eight women (7.6%) and 12 (2.4%) were categorized as having a high risk of developing BC in five years and a lifetime, respectively.


Conclusion: The utilization of Gail models can help healthcare providers identify a subset of women who are at an increased risk for breast cancer and personalize their approach in selecting the timing schedule and modality for breast cancer screening.

Full text article

Generated from XML file

References

WHO. Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence by cancer site. 2020. Available from: https://gco.iarc.fr/today/data/factsheets/populations/400-jordan-fact-sheets.pdf

Jordan Cancer Registry. Cancer incidence in Jordan. 2014. Available from: http://ghdx.healthdata.org/organizations/jordan-cancer-registry

Siegel RL, Miller KD, Jemal A. Cancer Statistics, 2017. CA Cancer J Clin. 2017 Jan;67(1):7-30. doi: 10.3322/caac.21387.

Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, Dikshit R, Eser S, Mathers C, Rebelo M, et al. Cancer incidence and mortality worldwide: sources, methods and major patterns in GLOBOCAN 2012. Int J Cancer. 2015 Mar 1;136(5):E359-86. doi: 10.1002/ijc.29210.

Saleh B, Elhawary MA, Mohamed ME, Ali IN, El Zayat MS, Mohamed H. Gail model utilization in predicting breast cancer risk in Egyptian women: a cross-sectional study. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2021 Aug;188(3):749-758. doi: 10.1007/s10549-021-06200-z.

Amir E, Freedman OC, Seruga B, Evans DG. Assessing women at high risk of breast cancer: a review of risk assessment models. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2010 May 19;102(10):680-91. doi: 10.1093/jnci/djq088.

Eadie L, Enfield L, Taylor P, Michell M, Gibson A. Breast cancer risk scores in a standard screening population. Breast Cancer Management. 2013 2(6):463–479. doi:10.2217/bmt.13.52.

Erbil N, Dundar N, Inan C, Bolukbas N. Breast cancer risk assessment using the Gail model: a Turkish study. Asian Pacific J cancer Prev. 2015;1(6). doi:10.7314/apjcp.2015.16.1.303.

Sa-Nguanraksa D, Sasanakietkul T, O-Charoenrat C, Kulprom A, O-Charoenrat P. Gail model underestimates breast cancer risk in Thai population. Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention, 2019:20(8), 2385–2389. doi:10.31557/APJCP.2019.20.8.2385.

Abu-Rustum NR, Herbolsheimer H. Breast cancer risk assessment in indigent women at a public hospital. Gynecologic Oncology, 2001:81(2), 287–290. doi:10.1006/gyno.2001.6160.

Tice JA, Cummings SR, Ziv E, Kerlikowske K. Mammographic breast density and the Gail model for breast cancer risk prediction in a screening population. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2005;94(2):115-22. doi: 10.1007/s10549-005-5152-4.

Abdel-Razeq H, Zaru L, Badheeb A, Hijjawi S. The Application of Gail Model to Predict the Risk of Developing Breast Cancer among Jordanian Women. J Oncol. 2020 Feb 20;2020:9608910. doi: 10.1155/2020/9608910.

Al Otaibi HH. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Using the Gail Model and It’s Predictors in Saudi Women. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2017 Nov 26;18(11):2971-2975. doi: 10.22034/APJCP.2017.18.11.2971.

Bener A, Çatan F, El Ayoubi HR, Acar A, Ibrahim WH. Assessing Breast Cancer Risk Estimates Based on the Gail Model and Its Predictors in Qatari Women. J Prim Care Community Health. 2017 Jul;8(3):180-187. doi: 10.1177/2150131917696941.

Challa VR, Swamyvelu K, Shetty N. Assessment of the clinical utility of the Gail model in estimating the risk of breast cancer in women from the Indian population. Ecancermedicalscience. 2013 Oct 17;7:363. doi: 10.3332/ecancer.2013.363.

Ewaid SH, Alazawii L. Breast cancer risk assessment by Gail model in women of Baghdad. The Alexandria Medical Journal, 2016;53(2), 183–186.

Fikree M, Hamadeh RR. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment among Bahraini Women. Bahrain Medical Bulletin, 2013;35(1). doi:10.12816/0000507.

Khazaee-Pool M, Majlessi F, Nedjat S, Montazeri A, Janani L, Pashaei T. Assessing Breast Cancer Risk among Iranian Women Using the Gail Model. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2016;17(8):3759-62.

Mirghafourvand M, Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi S, Ahmadpour P, Rahi P. Breast Cancer Risk Based on the Gail Model and its Predictors in Iranian Women. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2016;17(8):3741-5.

Nickson C, Procopio P, Velentzis LS, Carr S, Devereux L, Mann GB, et al. Prospective validation of the NCI Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (Gail Model) on 40,000 Australian women. Breast Cancer Res. 2018 Dec 20;20(1):155. doi: 10.1186/s13058-018-1084-x.

Novotny J, Pecen L, Petruzelka L, Svobodnik A, Dusek L, Danes J, et al. Breast cancer risk assessment in the Czech female population--an adjustment of the original Gail model. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 2006 Jan;95(1):29-35. doi: 10.1007/s10549-005-9027-5.

Park B, Ma SH, Shin A, Chang MC, Choi JY, Kim S, et al. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction. PLoS One. 2013 Oct 25;8(10):e76736. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0076736.

Seyednoori T, Pakseresht S, Roushan Z. Risk of developing breast cancer by utilizing Gail model. Women Health. 2012;52(4):391-402. doi: 10.1080/03630242.2012.678476.

Raosoft Inc. (2004) RaoSoft® sample size calculator. http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

Ewaid SH, Al-Azzawi LHA. Breast cancer risk assessment by Gail Model in women of Baghdad. Alexandria Journal of Medicine. 2017;53(2):183-186. doi:10.1016/j.ajme.2016.09.001.

Authors

Hamzeh AL-Balas
Mahmoud AL-Balas
drbalas1984@gmail.com (Primary Contact)
Hadeel Heilat
Rogayah Mustafa
Eyad Attoun
Khaled Albakri
1.
AL-Balas H, AL-Balas M, Heilat H, Mustafa R, Attoun E, Albakri K. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment in Jordanian Women Using Gail Model: A Cross-Sectional Study: BC risk assessment using Gail model. Arch Breast Cancer [Internet]. 2024 Jan. 31 [cited 2024 Jun. 13];11(1):82-8. Available from: https://archbreastcancer.com/index.php/abc/article/view/853

Article Details